Fireblocks Managing Director of Financial Markets & Head of APAC, Stephen Richardson, predicts that only 10-20% of the capital will flow into the Ethereum ETF on its trade debut compared to the Bitcoin ETF.

Analysts at Bloomberg concur with this view but disputed that a Ethereum ETF would see more first-day fund inflows than a Bitcoin ETF. Although many traders are looking for Ether to test all-time highs, Fireblocks executives warned that the coin has a number of unique use cases, which may make its value more difficult to assess.

A spot Bitcoin ETF, which launched on January 11, brought in a whopping $655.2 million inflows and surpassed the industry's anticipated figures.

While Bitcoin is generally accepted as a trustworthy store of value, gauging the worth of Ethereum's tech-focused investments is even harder, Stephen Richardson says. He highlighted:

"What's lacking is a widely agreed-upon approach that accurately assesses the usefulness—or utility rate—of the Ethereum blockchain."

Richardson further elaborated:

"You first need to build the right value metrics and drivers so that one can measure the adoption or utilization of the technology to derive the value."

Consequently, Richardson concluded:

"We will not have the same day one inflows in Ether ETFs that we had in the Bitcoin ETFs."

First day inflows were large for Bitcoin ETFs, according to data from BitMEX Research: Bitcoin ETFs: $237.9mIBIT by Blackrock: $111.7mFBTC by Fidelity: $227m- BitMEX Research (@BitMEXResearch) October 19, 2021

                                               Flows for spot Bitcoin ETFs Source: BitMEX Research

Richardson pointed out that Ethereum has always been measured using TVL, a metric currently used with both Ethereum and its layer 2 blockchains. He was still eager for more accurate measurements to gain further insight, nevertheless.

VanEck, a spot ETH ETF approved this week, said that user counts and transaction volume might be reasonably reliable indicators of broader adoption of Ethereum.

Regarding a catchy one-liner to draw interest from potential spot Ether ETF investors, Richardson said that Ethereum is the "topdog" for the TabooSpace and will offer the widest appeal to both retail and institutional investors on-chain.

"Ethereum's value is intrinsically linked to the use cases that are being built on top of it, so investors are making a bet on the utilization of the software itself."

Markus Thielen who is the head of 10X research and suggests that Ethereum could become a “Network that powers the future of finance“. He also pointed out that Ethereum's revenue is 'much, much lower' than its $455 billion valuation, meaning it's not yet an 'investment grade, cash flow-generative' investment.

On May 23 the SEC signed off on spot ETH ETFs as a result of 19b-4 applications submitted by VanEck and others. But VanEck and others need the SEC to finally sign an S-1 filing that would start ETH ETF trading.

Following the S-1 filing, analysts like James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have a gloomy outlook, with Seyffart saying that the Ethereum ETF could likely capture only 10 to 20% of assets as compared to the Bitcoin ETF.

On May 29, 2024, Eric Balchunas tweeted:

"10 may be a bit much. but I'd at least divide by 5 when it comes to expectations around the Ether spot ETFs re flows/volume/media/everything relative to spot Bitcoin ETFs. That said, grabbing 20% of what they got would be huge win/successful launch by normal ETF standards."


The stake gathered by the Bitcoin ETF since its launch amounts to almost $13.8 billion, according to Farside Investors. An acquisition of 15% of this sum would bring spot Ether ETFs to a total of about $2.07 billion, an impressive figure for the industry.


This article detailed through analysis and realistic projections sets clear expectations for investors and stakeholders with respect to the potential of Ethereum ETFs.